Shares of Intuitive Machines (LUNR), a space technology firm, climbed on reports of robust fourth-quarter revenue growth, even as the company tempered its sales forecasts for the coming year. The stock saw a 30% increase following the release of financial results showing a 79% surge in revenue, driven by new contracts for the company’s direct-to-earth services.
Financial Performance and Future Outlook
For the fourth quarter, Intuitive Machines reported sales of $54.7 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA loss of $11.2 million, slightly exceeding Wall Street expectations of a $6.1 million loss. Despite projecting 2025 sales between $250 million and $300 million—below the average analyst expectation of $342.5 million—the company anticipates achieving positive EBITDA on a non-GAAP adjusted basis by the end of this year. It aims for a positive adjusted EBITDA for the entire year of 2026.
Intuitive Machines specializes in space exploration technology and infrastructure development, providing lunar landers, communication technologies, and data analytics tools for space missions. Key clients include governmental, commercial, and scientific organizations focused on lunar exploration and expanding the commercial space market.
For the full year, Intuitive Machines reported approximately $228 million in sales. The company maintains a solid cash position of $385 million and a record backlog of $328.3 million, marking a 22% year-over-year increase.
Analyst Sentiment
Analysts generally hold a cautiously optimistic view despite some recent setbacks. Several firms have adjusted their price targets, reflecting a mixed outlook.
Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its price target from $15 to $13 but maintained an Overweight rating, emphasizing that the company’s primary revenue is driven by space contracts rather than launch missions. Despite the recent moon landing anomaly, Cantor views current share levels as an attractive entry point and expects significant revenue from the IM-2 Mission, which is anticipated to account for over 90% of the company’s revenue.
Canaccord revised its price target from $22 to $21 while maintaining a Buy rating, noting that although Q4 results were below estimates, the company provided promising details regarding future revenue from the IM-2 lunar mission and additional government contracts. Roth MKM also reduced its target from $20 to $12 but kept a Buy rating, acknowledging the challenges faced but expressing optimism about Intuitive Machines’ learning opportunities from lunar missions, particularly in the moon’s strategic south pole area.
Based on recent analyst recommendations, Intuitive Machines is rated a Moderate Buy overall. The average price target for LUNR stock is $16.33, indicating a potential upside of 77.11% from current levels.
