Is the Future of AI Predetermined? Examining the Role of Manifest Destiny
Some believe that humankind’s drive to create artificial general intelligence (AGI) and, ultimately, artificial superintelligence (ASI) is a manifestation of destiny. In this article, we’ll explore this question, unpacking the concept of manifest destiny and its potential influence on AI development.
Defining Manifest Destiny
The term “manifest destiny” originates from the era when American settlers expanded westward. It suggests that our destiny is sometimes obvious and that we shouldn’t question or try to justify it. In essence, it’s what will happen in the future, an unavoidable fate.
Historically, manifest destiny was used to justify actions, including adverse ones, by claiming a divine moral virtue and that the American way of life warranted expansion. But for many, the concept is a slogan to justify a form of imperialism, leading to debates about its merits.
The Pursuit of AGI and ASI
There’s a great deal of research to advance AI, with the general goal of either reaching artificial general intelligence (AGI) or, potentially, artificial superintelligence (ASI).
- AGI is AI that matches human intellect.
- ASI surpasses human intellect, being superior in all feasible ways.
AI experts are divided about the impact of reaching AGI or ASI. One group, the “AI doomers,” predicts that AGI or ASI will eliminate humanity. The other, the “AI accelerationists,” argues that AGI or ASI will solve global problems, like curing diseases and overcoming world hunger, leading to vast economic gains. No one can say which camp is right, and this has become another polarizing aspect of our contemporary times.
Does Manifest Destiny Drive the Quest for AGI and ASI?
To explore the concept of manifest destiny, we must consider some key questions:
A. Are we driven to attain AGI because of manifest destiny?
B. Are we driven to attain ASI because of manifest destiny?
C. Are we driven to attain AGI/ASI because of manifest destiny?
D. Are we driven to advance AI overall, regardless of AGI or ASI, because of manifest destiny?
One explanation for our determination to advance AI is that it is our manifest destiny. Perhaps it is the destiny of humankind to make AI. If you seek an explanation, the AI accelerationists would tell you that through advancing AI, we can cure cancer and solve society’s problems.
Manifest Destiny and the American Frontier
The American settler era is especially apt to the situation we find ourselves in right now regarding AI. We can revisit history in the modern era.
- Inevitability: Same as westward expansion.
- Ideological Justification: Present-day AI advocates similarly argue that pushing AI forward is humanity’s destiny.
- Technological Drive: New breakthroughs will drive AI forward likewise.
- Immense Consequences: AGI/ASI is predicted to disrupt human labor, governance, and control structures.
- Central Actors: The parallel can be drawn to the pursuit of AGI/ASI, being driven by some governments, corporations, and universities.
- Allure of the Frontier: Though AI isn’t about geography per se, you could claim an analogy to the mysteries of the mind and intelligence.
AGI vs. ASI: A Critical Distinction
When considering the existential risk, the attainment of AGI might not be as dangerous as ASI. With AGI, we would be coping with AI that is equal in intellect. But when a superintelligent ASI comes along, the chances of existential risk go way up. The manifest destiny of ASI might be declared as inextricably leading us to destruction.
Is Manifest Destiny Applicable?
There’s no tangible proof that manifest destiny is involved in advancing AI; critics argue that the comparison is superficial and even dangerous, given the historical context of the Western expansion. Those who criticize the alliance of AI also worry that the notion of destiny will hinder AI ethics and regulatory efforts to put proper controls. Critics are fighting to make any effort to put up any perceived barriers or bumps in the road.
Shaping Our Destiny
While the future of AI remains uncertain, the rapid advancement of AI will continue. As the American orator William Jennings Bryan said, “Destiny is no matter of chance. It is a matter of choice. It is not a thing to be waited for, it is a thing to be achieved.” Ultimately, we must decide how this technology will shape our future.
