The prospect of fighter jets operating without human pilots is becoming increasingly plausible, with the US Navy suggesting that its next combat jet might be the last to carry a pilot. This marks a significant shift in the thinking around aerial warfare, although it’s not entirely unexpected. Other programs developing next-generation fighter jets are also considering uncrewed options.
Advantages of Autonomous Fighter Jets
Uncrewed aircraft offer several advantages over their piloted counterparts. Without the need for life support systems such as ejection seats and oxygen supplies, they can perform maneuvers that would be beyond the capabilities of human-piloted aircraft. Estimates suggest that pilots may reduce an aircraft’s kinematic performance by as much as 80%, although this figure is disputed. Kinematic performance refers to an aircraft’s ability to maneuver, accelerate, and maintain high speeds – crucial factors in air combat.
AI-enabled systems are already demonstrating superior performance in military exercises. The current model for remotely piloted aircraft is known as ‘human-in-the-loop,’ where a human operator remains in control. However, AI is now enabling the possibility of ‘human-on-the-loop’ systems, where humans supervise and intervene if necessary, and even ‘human-out-of-the-loop’ systems, where AI autonomously selects and engages targets. The latter category, while controversial, may offer decisive advantages in scenarios where milliseconds matter.
Potential Benefits and Applications
Autonomous combat jets could offer significant financial savings. Fighter jets are expensive to build, operate, and maintain, partly due to the training and equipment required to support pilots. A 2011 study found that the life cycle cost of a surveillance drone was roughly half that of a comparable piloted platform. Cheaper aircraft are particularly important when considering the potential losses that air forces might incur in a conflict with major adversaries.
Unpiloted combat jets also mitigate risk. As militaries face a shortage of trained pilots for potential conflicts, uncrewed systems offer a way to restore the balance without putting lives at risk. The US Air Force’s Project Venom is training AI in modified F-16 jets, with the eventual goal of transferring this capability to drones. These drones will operate alongside crewed aircraft as part of mixed human and machine teams.
Challenges and Limitations
Despite the potential advantages, several challenges and limitations remain. AI is not yet ready to fully replace human judgment in complex and ambiguous situations like warfare. Machine learning, a subset of AI, struggles with the inherent creativity and unpredictability of combat. For instance, something as simple as putting tires on an aircraft can challenge computer vision systems.
Another significant issue is communication. Remotely operated drone systems, especially those that are interconnected and swarming, require reliable data links. Adversaries are investing heavily in jamming these signals, which could push designs toward either keeping a pilot onboard or embracing full autonomy so that aircraft can continue fighting even if cut off from command.
The Future of Aerial Warfare
The US Navy’s statement about potentially having its last piloted combat jet serves as a warning: the age of the human fighter pilot may be coming to an end. However, the decision to fully adopt autonomous systems may ultimately be dictated by the demands of future conflicts, particularly against adversaries willing to use similar technologies. As one air force commander noted, ‘robotified warfare…is centuries away,’ highlighting the significant challenges that remain before autonomous systems can fully replace human pilots in complex combat scenarios.
