Japan Weather Agency Explores AI to Improve Forecasting Accuracy
The Japan Meteorological Agency is considering the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into its weather forecasting systems to improve accuracy through deep learning, according to a source close to the matter. Preparations are underway, with a new team established in April to lead the development of infrastructure and technology necessary to combine AI predictions based on historical weather data with current numerical forecasting models.
If implemented, the AI system would utilize deep learning to analyze vast amounts of data, identifying patterns in weather phenomena to generate forecasts for future temperatures, rainfall, and other meteorological predictions. AI-based methods may prove more accurate than current forecasting approaches in certain areas, such as typhoon path prediction.
The agency is expected to announce additional measures to enhance data functionality using AI and other technologies around June. Currently, it uses a numerical weather prediction model that utilizes observational data and supercomputers to simulate future atmospheric conditions. Experienced forecasters then analyze the results, factoring in real-world situations to issue weather reports and disaster alerts.
While AI has been used to fine-tune simulation outputs, humans will continue to play an oversight role and issue final forecasts even if AI predictions are introduced. In addition to weather forecasting, the agency is exploring the use of deep learning to process observational data from the Himawari-10 weather satellite, set to begin operation in fiscal 2029.
The introduction of AI in weather forecasting has sparked discussions among commentators, with some expressing skepticism about its potential benefits. However, experts argue that AI, when trained and validated by scientists using specific datasets, can offer significant improvements over traditional methods.
