The Imperative of Anticipating Technological Change
In today’s rapidly evolving business landscape, executives face a constant challenge: the need to anticipate and adapt to disruptive technologies. The pace of change is accelerating; according to Accenture’s global disruption index, the rate of disruption is occurring at 50 times the rate of just five years ago. Businesses that fail to anticipate these shifts risk obsolescence, while those who proactively embrace new technologies can unlock new avenues for growth, efficiency, and innovation.
Companies that successfully adopted emerging technologies early have set industry standards. Consider Amazon’s early investment in e-commerce infrastructure, Apple’s introduction of the iPhone, Netflix’s video-on-demand platform, and Uber’s app-based ride-sharing model. These companies didn’t just react to change; they anticipated it, creating new business opportunities, gaining market share, and establishing their leadership positions.
The Challenges of Predicting the Future
Predicting the future of technology is notoriously difficult. Factors such as cost, usability, perceived value, and the evolution of standards all contribute to uncertainty. Add unforeseen events like the COVID-19 pandemic, and even the most carefully crafted predictions can quickly become obsolete. Early adopters can also struggle with overemphasizing early information or refusing to abandon investments that are no longer viable. In addition, the success of a new technology often depends on supporting infrastructure and related products. All of these factors create complex interdependencies that are difficult to predict.
Developing a Proactive Approach
While executives cannot become infallible “technology fortune tellers,” they can cultivate an organizational ecosystem primed for learning, adaptability, and innovation. This requires a multifaceted strategy that embeds technological awareness, engagement, and agility within a company’s DNA. We recommend executives focus on developing four key capabilities:
1. Engage in Technology Monitoring and Scouting
This means more than casually observing industry trends. It requires a structured and systematic approach to surveying the technological landscape. Consider creating a dedicated technology scouting team tasked with identifying promising innovations, assessing their potential impact, and rapidly experimenting with them. This team needs a clear mission and a mechanism to quickly evaluate and prioritize the trends that matter most. Partnering with research institutions and cutting-edge startups provides direct access to innovations that can help solve current and future business problems.
-
Stay informed: Read industry reports, attend technology conferences, and network to understand the evolution of technologies in your industry.
Tip: Hold briefings on emerging technologies and their impact on business. Ask company members to identify problems that can be addressed with these new technologies.
- Tip: Focus the scouting team on delivering tangible business value by establishing key performance indicators (KPIs) that measure their impact on products, operations, or customer experience.
- Tip: If establishing a dedicated team isn’t possible, form a virtual team comprised of leaders from across the organization.
2. Cultivate a Culture of Curiosity and Experimentation
This shift goes beyond encouraging employees to stay informed; it demands an environment that rewards innovative thinking and encourages risk-taking. The goal is to tap into your organization’s collective intelligence and creativity.
- Tip: Establish a Center of Engagement (CoE) where technologists and business users can experiment with new technologies and share results. Encourage rapid training and the open sharing of successes and failures. Promote experimentation and collaboration to determine which technologies to adopt across the company.
- Tip: Hold internal hackathons and invite technology providers to participate. This builds trust and encourages company-wide experimentation. Evaluate technologies based on the Technology Readiness Level (TRL).
3. Utilize Technology Road Mapping and Scenario Planning
Sophisticated road mapping and scenario planning are essential to envision and prepare for multiple outcomes. Form diverse, cross-functional teams that combine technology expertise with business acumen. These teams should use modeling techniques and data analytics to create dynamic, adaptable road maps. Regularly review and update these road maps to ensure they remain current.
-
For each technology, evaluate the following:
-
Will employees adopt it?
-
Will it solve a business problem?
-
Can you explain it to business users?
-
Can you afford it?
-
Tip: Create a one-page position paper on each emerging technology. List current activities, relevance to your business, which business units could benefit, and key people or partners. Update this position every six months. Consider sharing this brief position paper with suppliers, partners, and customers.
-
4. Forge External Partnerships
No organization can stay abreast of all technological developments on its own. Engaging with a diverse network of partners — from established vendors to startups, academic institutions, and industry peers — provides insights and access to innovations. These can take many forms, from formal research collaborations to participation in industry consortia or investments in venture capital funds focused on emerging technologies.
- Tip: Talk to your providers about their road maps and offer to test their emerging technologies. If you can use them to solve a real business problem, you will raise their priority for partners and speed up adoption. The technology partner maintains it.
- Tip: Create a formal assessment of external innovations, which could involve a dedicated team.
Seizing the Opportunity
The digital revolution demands that leaders stay abreast of technological change. By leveraging technology monitoring, experimentation, road mapping, and external partnerships, executives can stay ahead of disruptive trends in areas like AI, IoT, cloud computing, and cybersecurity. Now is the time to take action; yesterday would have been even better.
