As we approach a new era marked by rapid technological change, the world must consider how to best manage these transformative forces. In the coming years, the capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) will become increasingly relevant. For nations and the world to achieve success, it’s essential to harness the potential of AI effectively, promoting widespread adoption and supporting initiatives to prepare citizens for the age of AI.
Economists categorize technologies into two types: single-purpose tools and general-purpose technologies (GPTs). Single-purpose tools excel at one specific task, while GPTs like electricity or personal computers have multiple applications utilized across every economic sector. AI will almost certainly be regarded as the next great GPT.
GPTs have the power to reshape economies and societies. Jeffrey Ding, a professor at George Washington University, documents the remarkable degree to which GPTs have reshaped economies over the past 250 years. In his book “Technology and the Rise of Great Powers,” Professor Ding describes the role of GPTs in driving industrial revolutions, from the mechanization of agriculture and manufacturing in the First Industrial Revolution, based on ironworking and the Second Industrial Revolution powered by electricity and machine tools, to the Third Industrial Revolution, driven by computerization and digital technologies.
Professor Ding emphasizes that a country’s sustained economic growth during an industrial revolution is linked to the broad adoption or “diffusion” of critical GPTs across its economy, not only to innovations in leading sectors. Historically, critical GPTs have significantly boosted productivity, and the more widely a GPT is adopted, the greater its contribution to economic growth. Microsoft’s experience reveals that sustained economic growth in the early 21st century is linked to the adoption of digital technologies. Today, policymakers must focus on the adoption of AI across all societal sectors.
Early innovation often feels like a race, but broad technology adoption takes more time. This pattern will likely hold true for AI, so countries need combined short and long-term strategies for success.
Building AI Skills
Skilling is essential for the spread of a critical GPT. Organizations need skilled workers to adopt new technology. The early expansion of the PC sector in Europe required protection of software under copyright law and investment in necessary skilling programs. Widespread adoption in the United States was fueled with extensive PC training programs. Microsoft recently provided professional-development training to its employees to help them get the most from AI applications such as Copilots.
As Professor Ding’s book illustrates, the need for new skills has been critical for all major GPTs. National AI skilling strategies must build upon existing disciplines like computer and data science and determine the best ways to provide skilling opportunities across various economic sectors.
The Role of Social Acceptance
New technology only becomes truly important when people want to use it. Public or social acceptance of new technology typically comes down to usefulness and trust. Technology must solve real-world problems, and companies must develop governance models.
The early years of electricity showed a competition among inventors attempting to prove the safety of their approach. This provides context for the evolution of business practices because the public will only use trustworthy technology. Broad social acceptance for AI will depend on ensuring that AI creates new opportunities for workers, that the tech sector takes a responsible approach to AI competition, and the technology is developed with climate sustainability practices in mind.
Ultimately, the world needs AI that is broadly accessible and trustworthy to enhance both productivity and prosperity, and we can learn from history to ensure that AI benefits are shared widely. Across the public and private sectors, we can work together to earn and sustain public acceptance for the next great GPT.
