The stock market, though recovering slightly off its lows, continued its downward trend leading into the Ides of March, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 remaining below crucial technical support for four consecutive weeks. Amid this volatility, investors are keenly watching for signals from potential market leaders, despite the unclear economic and regulatory landscape.
Until a follow-through day signals a broader market rally, investors are advised to build watchlists of strong growth stocks that are forming constructive chart patterns. The focus of the coming week will be heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting and the developments from Nvidia’s GTC Conference.
Earnings reports are not expected to be a major market mover this week, but investors will still be tracking reports from Nike (NKE), FedEx (FDX), and a handful of promising China-based stocks. The housing and real estate sectors are also in focus, with Lennar (LEN) releasing earnings and several key data reports due.
Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve’s Role
The primary question hanging over the market is whether the Federal Reserve will take action, especially given the first indications of a softening job market. Alternatively, policymakers may choose to wait and gauge the impact of potential tax-cut legislation.
Along with its policy update on Wednesday, the Fed will release new quarterly projections for interest rates, unemployment, and inflation for 2025 and beyond. Current market expectations favor the Fed delaying rate cuts until June, with only a 31% chance of a reduction in May. On March 7th, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed confidence in the economy’s strength, stating the Fed was “well positioned to wait for greater clarity” on the Trump agenda before making any moves. Also expected this coming week is the February retail sales data, planned to be released on Monday.
Nvidia’s GTC Conference and AI Developments
Following a rebound over the past week, Nvidia, the AI-chip maker, will hold its semiannual GTC conference from March 17-21 in San Jose, Calif. The company is promoting the conference as “the world’s premier AI conference.” CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to deliver a keynote speech on Tuesday, where he will likely discuss innovations in agentic AI, robotics, and accelerated computing.
Analysts anticipate Nvidia will unveil its GB300 AI chip at the event, which could become available in May. GTC 2025 will focus on the future of artificial intelligence with over 1,000 sessions, 2,000 speakers, and nearly 400 exhibitors. The conference also features a day devoted to quantum computing, taking place on Thursday.
Key Earnings Reports and Sector Analysis
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Nike: Despite recent challenges, Nike continues to be a bellwether for global supply chain and inventory trends. However, UBS noted that Nike’s global sales growth had slowed in the last three months, and fiscal year ’26 outlooks could be below expectations. Nike shares have been trending downward since October 2021.
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China Earnings: Several Chinese e-commerce companies are set to report, including PDD Holdings (PDD), the parent company of Pinduoduo and Temu. Alibaba Group (BABA) and JD.com (JD) have already posted revenue beats. Other Chinese companies to watch include Tencent (TCEHY), Baozun (BZUN), and H World Group (HTHT).
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FedEx: Despite challenges, analysts remain optimistic about FedEx. Deutsche Bank initiated coverage with a buy rating and a price target of 337, while JPMorgan lowered its target to 323 but maintained an overweight rating. The planned spinout of FedEx Freight is not expected to have substantial news. FedEx stock has been struggling to maintain its lows since July.
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Lennar: Lennar, the second largest national homebuilder, reports its fiscal first-quarter results on Friday. The market will be closely watching the company’s outlook and comments on interest rates, particularly after the Fed’s news conference the previous Wednesday. Housing starts, existing home sales, and builder sentiment data will also be available during the week.
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Other Earnings Briefs: Additional companies reporting earnings this week include Micron Technology (MU), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Carnival Corp. (CCL), XPeng (XPEV), Zeekr (ZK), Nio (NIO), and Jabil Circuits (JBL).
The market’s direction remains uncertain, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s actions, the advancements in AI, and the performance of key sectors. Investors are encouraged to carefully analyze earnings reports and economic indicators for further insights.
